Question 32. Do you think we should plan for a higher number of homes than the minimum required by government, to provide flexibility to support the growing economy?
3.67 Altogether it has been estimated that more than 30,000 extra homes, above those already in the pipeline, could be built in the Greater Cambridge area by 2040. Grosvenor and USS support a plan for a higher number of homes to support the growing economy. However, it should be complimented with additional infrastructure and public services so that it does not compromise quality of life. Both Councils should carefully consider the priorities of their area to ensure local needs are being met. For example, a top priority for the South Cambridgeshire District Council is to reduce commuting travel and ensure the provision of homes specifically targets essential local workers. In addition, the demographic profile is also changing, with the proportion of those aged over 65 significantly increasing. Therefore, the Councils should promote a range of housing options across all tenures to accommodate for the growth of people and families. 3.68 The CPIER makes it clear that the area can plan for significant employment and housing growth successfully but acknowledges that each area needs to carry out their own detailed modelling work which will form part of a concrete evidence base. This in turn helps to inform the strategic planning requirements of the area. Higher levels of housing, where delivered in the most sustainable locations, such as at Trumpington, will have positive impacts on social, environmental and economic factors.
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33. Housing requirements are minima and the intention should be to exceed the number of homes required by the Government. In order to be robust and sound, the number of sites and dwellings to be allocated by the Plan should exceed the objectively assessed need to reflect the reality that some allocated sites will not come forward in the plan period or deliver the number of homes they are allocated for. 34. Additionally, this is particularly the case when considering the aspirations for growth in jobs and economies across the district. Greater Cambridge’s current and future housing need is largely driven by the employment growth targeted as part of doubling the regional GVA by 2041. Research by Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Independent Economic Commission (CPIEC) clearly shows that the quantity of land/sites allocated for housing will need to be significantly more than that currently planned for in the Local Plans. 35. Evidence on job density and economic activity shows there is little capacity among existing Greater Cambridge residents to expand the workforce and economic growth will need to rely on workers migrating or commuting into the area to avoid limiting growth. This places continuing pressure and demand on the housing market and to date, demand has vastly surpassed supply, creating a severe affordability issue. Therefore, the volume of house building needs to significantly increase across the district and exceed minimum requirements in order to prevent economic growth in Greater Cambridge stalling and housing unaffordability increasing. 36. Allocating land for additional housing, above minimum targets, would also ensure there is sufficient flexibility within the Local Plan to respond to changing housing needs/trends over the Local Plan period.
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6.3 To support the Government’s objective of significantly boosting the supply of homes, a sufficient amount and variety of land needs to be identified to meeting housing needs within the Joint Local Plan area. The Cambridge and Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) (September 2018) suggests that higher housing target numbers are likely to be needed in Cambridgeshire if the potential for higher growth in employment is to be met. 6.4 Housing requirements are minimums, not maximums to stay under at all costs. There is a wellevidenced affordability problem in Greater Cambridge; a greater supply of homes will be part of the solution. “Too many of the people working in Cambridge have commutes that are difficult, long and growing: not out of choice, but necessity due to high housing costs.”5 6.5 There is an underlying and systemic affordability issue that is making it increasingly difficult for those on lower incomes to afford to live in the Greater Cambridge area. Alongside, the Cambridge economy has seen a prolonged and steady increase, which has attracted a larger workforce and increased the pressure on the housing market; availability and affordability. Alongside this trend is a clear political aspiration to see the Cambridge economy grow further; mostly clearly expressed by the Combined Authority that has a growth target as set out in its Devolution Deal of doubling GVA over 25 years. All of this clearly points to the need to plan for an amount of housing well above the minimum housing requirement. 5 Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Industrial Strategy 2019, p13
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Previously, the Housing Delivery Test (HDT) measurement result published in February 2019 for Cambridge City Council is 388% therefore there were no required consequences. The HDT measurement result for South Cambridgeshire was much lower, scoring 78% with a consequence of a buffer. However, this had no consequences either due to the MHCLG recommending for housing trajectories for Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire to be considered jointly, including future calculations for the 5 year housing land supply. MHCLG acknowledges that the sequences for development involves more development in Cambridge initially in the plan period and more development later in the plan period in South Cambridgeshire. Altogether, it has been estimated that more than 30,000 extra homes, above those already in the pipeline, could be built in the Greater Cambridge area by 2040. This is a positive but should be complemented with additional infrastructure and public services to not have a compromise on the quality of life. Both councils should carefully consider the priorities of their area to ensure local needs are being met. For example, a top priority for the South Cambridgeshire District Council is to reduce commuting travel and ensure the provision of homes specifically targets essential local workers. In addition, the demographic profile is also changing, with the proportion of those aged over 65 significantly increasing. Therefore, the Councils should promote a range of housing options across all tenures to accommodate for the growth of people and families. The CPIER makes this clear, acknowledging that each area needs to carry out their own detailed modelling work which will form part of a concrete evidence base.
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WITH REFERENCE TO 4.6.3 (Q32-35) The number of homes, and their size and tenure, has a significant impact upon the child yield which is forecast from a new development and ultimately, help to shape the education which is required both in the short and longer term. The expectations for delivery, including the proportion of affordable housing, is essential to enable the Council to review its current provision, and inform its planning for the future.
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30. Housing requirements are minima and the intention should be to exceed the number of homes required by the Government. In order to be robust and sound, the number of sites and dwellings to be allocated by the Plan should exceed the objectively assessed need to reflect the reality that some allocated sites will not come forward in the plan period or deliver the number of homes they are allocated for. 31. Additionally, this is particularly the case when considering the aspirations for growth in jobs and economies across the district. Greater Cambridge’s current and future housing need is largely driven by the employment growth targeted as part of doubling the regional GVA by 2041. Research by Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Independent Economic Commission (CPIEC) clearly shows that the quantity of land/sites allocated for housing will need to be significantly more than that currently planned for in the Local Plans. 32. Evidence on job density and economic activity shows there is little capacity among existing Greater Cambridge residents to expand the workforce and economic growth will need to rely on workers migrating or commuting into the area to avoid to not be limited. This places continuing pressure and demand on the housing market and to date, demand has vastly surpassed supply, creating a severe affordability issue. Therefore, the volume of house building needs to significantly increase across the district and exceed minimum requirements in order to prevent economic growth in Greater Cambridge stalling and housing unaffordability increasing. 33. Allocating land for additional housing, above minimum targets, would also ensure there is sufficient flexibility within the Local Plan to respond to changing housing needs/trends over the Local Plan period.
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4.60 The standard method for assessing local housing need provides a minimum starting point. As Paragraph 110 of the Planning Practice Guidance states there will be circumstances where it is appropriate to consider whether actual housing need is higher than the standard method indicates. Page 23 4.61 Greater Cambridge is an area with strong economic growth, with aspirations to maintain this growth. Axis support the Cambridge and Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) (September 2018) case for higher levels of housing growth within Greater Cambridge required to achieve the potential for employment growth over the next 20 years. As is widely recognised, the economy of Cambridge is too important locally, regionally and nationally for the Councils’ to plan for the minimum number of homes required by the standard method. 4.62 In addition, there is a well-evidenced affordability problem in Greater Cambridge and a greater supply of homes will be part of the solution to tackle this issue. The Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Industrial Strategy 2019 makes this clear: “Too many of the people working in Cambridge have commutes that are difficult, long and growing: not out of choice, but necessity due to high housing costs.” [pg.13] 4.63 The increased demand for housing arising from the economic success of Cambridge also makes the area increasingly unaffordable. In addition, to being a concern to residents, affordability will impact upon the businesses looking to locate in the area. There is a danger that if there is an insufficient supply of housing the economic growth plans will not be realised. The role of housing in attracting and retaining skilled employees is widely recognised and should be adequately addressed in the new Local Plan.
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3.36 The Councils current supply side analysis for housing for the older population does not show the true extent of what is needed. Furthermore, it only forecasts needs to 2035. The new Greater Cambridge Local Plan will need to plan for a greater level of older people housing than currently anticipated by the Councils. Further detail is provided within the Greater Cambridge – Specialist Accommodation for the Elderly (February 2020) prepared by Healthcare Property Consultants.
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A. In order to be robust and sound, the number of sites and dwellings to be allocated by the Plan should exceed the objectively assessed need to reflect the reality that some allocated sites will not come forward in the plan period or deliver the number of homes they are allocated for. B. Additionally, housing requirements are minima and the intention should be to exceed the number of homes required by the Government. This is particularly the case when considering the aspirations for growth in jobs and economies across the Oxford – Cambridge growth arc. Notably, the Cambridge and Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) (September 2018) suggests that higher housing target numbers are likely to be needed in Cambridgeshire if the potential for higher growth in employment is to be met. C. The economic success of Greater Cambridge means it generates a need for labour greater than its resident population can serve and places an increasing pressure on the housing market. A lack of housing supply in the face of such demand has reduced the affordability of homes, particularly for those on lower incomes. As house price increases continue to outpace wage increases, Greater Cambridge is becoming an increasingly expensive and unaffordable place to live. To address these affordability issues, the quantity of land and number of homes allocated, needs to significantly exceed the Objectively Assessed need in order to begin to address the severe affordability issues. D. Overall, a greater supply of homes will help address the well-evidenced affordability problem and will ensure there is sufficient flexibility within the Local Plan to respond to changing housing needs/trends over the Local Plan period.
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We strongly agree that the Councils should plan for a higher number of homes than the minimum required by Government. Currently, the adopted Plans make provision for 1,675 new homes per annum. Figure 19 of the Plan demonstrates that the affordability ratio of lower quartile house prices to income ratio in Greater Cambridge is x 14.3. (The national average is x 7.3). The Government’s standard methodology for calculating the housing requirement, which takes account of affordability, requires the delivery of 1,800 new homes per annum in Greater Cambridge over the new Plan period. However, a study by the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) shows that recent employment growth in the region has been faster than previously forecast. The study considered future scenarios regarding continuation of that growth, including those that achieve the goal to double GVA over 25 years. On the basis of the jobs generated by this significant employment growth, the Plan should make provision for sufficient homes to meet the potential job growth over the Plan period. If homes are not available, unsustainable commuting patterns will be established as economic migrants are forced to travel into Greater Cambridge every day, because there are insufficient homes to meet the demand. Further, if homes are not built to meet the demand generated by the employment growth, the affordability of new homes will worsen and in-migrants to the area will be deterred from re-locating to Greater Cambridge, potentially causing a recruitment problem which itself could stifle further growth. The importance of economic growth is particularly relevant in the context that Greater Cambridge plays a pivotal role within the Oxford-Cambridge Arc, the UK Innovation Corridor and the Cambridge Tech Corridor. Each of these designated areas is focusing growth in and around Cambridge and the Greater Cambridge area. We acknowledge that the Councils have yet to undertake further work to determine the most appropriate housing requirement, and as a result of that work, the housing requirement for which the Plan makes provision could increase or decrease, but we strongly recommend that the success that has been achieved in job growth is underpinned by the delivery of housing to meet the associated demand for new homes. Spatial Strategy - Section 5 – Where to Build The spatial distribution of the planned level of growth, whether that is at a level which is guided by the Government’s methodology or by ambitious economic growth, is clearly extremely important to ensure that the correct infrastructure supports planned growth, that good placemaking remains a priority, and that the resulting settlement pattern is sustainable and still provides for an excellent quality of life for existing and new residents. The adopted Plans already make provision for housing growth in new settlements and on the Cambridge Urban Fringe, although growth in villages in these Plans is relatively limited. The preparation of this new Plan provides the opportunity to complement existing provision with a strategy which allocates an increased amount of land adjacent to sustainable villages, to capitalise on the sustainable lifestyle they already offer, and also to identify villages where new development could contribute to improving sustainability either by contributing to a new school, public transport provision, or community facilities for example. Paragraph 5.1 notes that the adopted Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire Local Plans allocate 35% of planned new development to rural areas. Para 2.5 of the Plan notes that, in preparing the new Plan, ‘The next Local Plan could re-examine the approach to village growth… this could include looking again at the village categories, being more flexible to the scale of development within the village framework, and/or allowing a more flexible approach to development on the edge of villages. We support this approach. Melbourn is currently identified as a Minor Rural Centre in Policy S/9 of the adopted South Cambridgeshire Local Plan 2018. Paragraph 2.59 of the South Cambridgeshire Plan notes that: ‘Minor rural centres have a lower level of services, facilities and employment than Rural Centres, but a greater level than most other villages in South Cambridgeshire, and often perform a role in terms of providing services and facilities for a small rural hinterland.’ Meldreth is identified as a Group Village in the adopted Plan: all Group Villages have at least a primary School, and Meldreth also has a shop. Both settlements therefore have the services to meet local needs, and also have the benefit of the train station at Meldreth which offers services to Cambridge and London. The importance of sustainable transport is recognised as a key influence in the spatial distribution of development in the Plan.
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Yes strongly agree Savills (UK) Ltd are instructed by xx to make representations to the Greater Cambridge Issues and Options Local Plan (January 2020) in respect of their land interests to the north of xx, Bassingbourn-cum-Kneesworth. It is considered essential that the authorities plan for a higher number of homes than the minimum required to support the region’s growing economy. The Government advocates the use of the ‘standard method’ to determine the minimum number of homes needed. However, Paragraph 010 Reference ID: 2a-010-20190220 of the PPG notes ‘there will be circumstances where it is appropriate to consider whether actual housing need is higher than the standard method indicates.’ It is considered the economic circumstances of the Cambridge area, which has one of the fastest growing economies in the country (https://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/new-economic-report-highlights-strong-year-cambridge), justifies the need to plan for a higher number of homes in Greater Cambridge than indicated by the standard method, as discussed below. The Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority (CPCA) has set an ambitious target in its Devolution Deal of doubling GVA over 25 years. This is on top of the significant growth the region has seen in the last 15 years. In the circumstances where all of the relevant Councils have signed up to the devolution deal to create the Combined Authority, it is arguable they have also committed themselves to promoting policies which supports this level of economic growth. Furthermore, the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Economic Review (CPIER) Final Report (2018) concludes that “the success of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough is a project of national importance” and consequently all authorities within should endeavour the region continues to prosper and capitalises on the success afforded. Paramount to this is ensuring an adequate supply of housing. The Review notes that the impact of business growth in the region has not always been entirely positive. Growth in employment has not been matched by corresponding housebuilding, or developments in infrastructure and as a result house prices have soared and journey times have increased as congestion has intensified. To address this particular issue, the report makes the following key recommendation: “There should be a review of housing requirements based on the potential for higher growth in employment than currently forecast by the EEFM. This review should take into account the continuing dialogue between ONS and the Centre for Business Research on employment numbers as well as the impact of the Cambridge–Milton Keynes–Oxford Arc. This should be used to set new targets which are likely to be higher than those already set – at the very least adding on accumulated backlog.” Consequently we support higher growth figures on the basis for the need to supply a range of new housing to cope with not only future economic growth that is anticipated up to 2040 but also to address the issues which have arisen as a result of existing economic growth. Summary of Comments: Savills (UK) Ltd are instructed by xx to make representations to the Greater Cambridge Issues and Options Local Plan (January 2020) in respect of their land interests to the north of xx, Bassingbourn-cum-Kneesworth.
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The question asks whether or not the Greater Cambridge Shared Planning Service should plan for a higher number of homes than the minimum required by government to provide flexibility and support the growing economy. The standard methodology indicates a need for 1,800 homes per year, or 40,900 homes for the suggested plan period of 2017-2040. However, as the draft Local Plan acknowledges, the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) 'showed that our recent growth has been faster than expected, and that growth is likely to continue. As a result, demand for new housing in this area has been exceptionally high and housebuilding has not kept up'. CPIER recommends that 'There should be a review of housing requirements based on the potential for higher growth in employment than currently forecast in the EEFM'. It states that 'No economy can achieve its potential without an adequate supply of housing, which must offer a range of types and price points for all society' and adds that it 'is concerned that Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is already running a very significant risk in this regard' and that risk is most acute in the Greater Cambridge area'. CPIER continues, stating that 'There has been insufficient housing development to meet demand. Average house prices and commuting have risen, choking labour supply while reducing the well-being of those forced to commute longer and longer distances [from more affordable areas]'. CPIER concludes that 'we believe the accumulated deficit in Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is so acute that the local authorities should re-examine their assessments of housing need, setting higher numbers, which at least reflect previous under-delivery'. To support the job growth around 2,900 homes would need to be built each year to deliver a total of 66,700 homes between 2017 – 2040 rather than the 1,800 homes per year using the Government’s standard methodology. This higher level of growth is supported and necessary to help deliver the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough vision of doubling the total economic output of the area over 25 years. For these reasons, we strongly agrees that the Greater Cambridge Shared Planning Service 'should plan for a higher number of homes than the minimum required by government, to provide flexibility to support the growing economy'. Summary of Comments: Strongly agree that 'we should plan for a higher number of homes than the minimum required…, to provide flexibility…for the growing economy'.
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Q32. Do you think we should plan for a higher number of homes than the minimum required by government, to provide flexibility to support the growing economy? The standard methodology indicates a need for 1,800 homes per year, or 40,900 homes for the suggested plan period of 2017-2040. However, as the draft Greater Cambridge Local Plan acknowledges, the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) 'showed that our recent growth has been faster than expected, and that growth is likely to continue. As a result, demand for new housing in this area has been exceptionally high and housebuilding has not kept up.' CPIER recommends that 'There should be a review of housing requirements based on the potential for higher growth in employment than currently forecast in the EEFM.' It states that 'No economy can achieve its potential without an adequate supply of housing, which must offer a range of types and price points for all society' and adds that it 'is concerned that Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is already runnning a very significant risk in this regard and that risk is most acute in the Greater Cambridge area.' In terms of housing numbers, the Cambridge & Peterborough Independent Economic Review identified that the recent growth in employment has not been matched by corresponding house-building and state that ‘We are rapidly approaching the point where even high-value businesses may decide that being based in Cambridge is no longer attractive. If nothing is done, the damage to society from the continuing drift away of less well-paid workers may become irreparable.’ To support the job growth, around 2,900 homes would need to be built each year to deliver a total of 66,700 homes between 2017 – 2040, in contrast to the 1,800 homes per year using the Government’s standard methodology. The PPG is clear in that the standard method provides a minimum number of homes to be planned for, and that this should be used as a starting point when preparing the housing requirement in their plan, unless exceptional circumstances justify an alternative approach (Paragraph: 001 Reference ID: 68-001-20190722). This higher level of growth is supported, to help deliver the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough vision of doubling the total economic output of the area over 25 years and it is considered that these are exceptional circumstances that justify a departure from the use of the standard method for calculating housing need. CPIER continues, stating that 'There has been insufficient housing development to meet demand. Average house prices and commuting have risen, choking labour supply while reducing the well-being of those forced to commute longer and longer distances [from more affordabe areas]'. CPIER concludes that 'we believe the accumulated deficit in Cambridgeshire & Peterborough is so acute that the local authorities should re-examine their assessments of housing need, setting higher numbers, which at least reflect previous under-delivery'. To support the job growth around 2,900 homes would need to be built each year to deliver a total of 66,700 homes between 2017 – 2040 rather than the 1,800 homes per year using the Government’s standard methodology. This higher level of growth is supported and necessary to help deliver the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough vision of doubling the total economic output of the area over 25 years. For these reasons, we strongly agrees that the Greater Cambridge Shared Planning Service 'should plan for a higher number of homes than the minimum required by government, to provide flexibility to support the growing economy'. Summary of Comments: Strongly agree that 'we should plan for a higher number of homes than the minimum required… to provide flexibility…for the growing economy'.
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4.1 Yes, strongly agree. 4.2 The current Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire Local Plans seek to provide a combined 33,500 dwellings to be built up to 2031. The area suffers a great disparity between housing provision and affordability. This is acknowledged within Figure 19 of the Issues and Options document itself and accompanying paragraph 4.6.3 confirms ‘Greater Cambridge is an expensive place to buy or rent a home. High prices are fuelled by high demand, which itself is fuelled by the strength of the local economy which attracts highly skilled workers’. The Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) Report confirms that growth in the employment sector has not been matched by proportionate house-buildings. The result has been large increases in house prices. 4.3 Greater Cambridge is located within the key economic corridors of the Oxford – Cambridge arc, the London – Stansted - Cambridge corridor and the Cambridge – Norwich tech corridor. The Oxford – Cambridge arc seeks to create a strategic vision corridor between the University cities. Its goal is to deliver 1 million dwellings in the arc by 2050, to be complemented by the infrastructure projects of the East-West Expressway and East-West Rail. At the eastern end of the arc, the driver is the City of Cambridge and its need for residential development to complement its skilled workforce. 4.4 The CPIER report provides a number of Key Recommendations to assist with growth in the area. Key Recommendation #5 of the CPIER Final Report September 2018 states: “There should be a review of housing requirements based on the potential for higher growth in employment than currently forecast by the EEFM. This review should take into account the continuing dialogue between ONS and the Centre for Business Research on employment numbers as well as the impact of the Cambridge-Milton Keynes-Oxford Arc. This should be used to set new targets which are likely to be higher than those already set – at the very least adding on accumulated backlog.” 4.5 A higher target of dwellings would assist in meeting the goals of the arc. A further positive resulting from increased housing numbers would be the subsequent proportion of affordable housing. At present, Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire District Council seek affordable housing provision of 40% for schemes over 15 dwellings. Should the Plan seek 66,700 dwellings rather than the 40,900 dwellings from the standard method calculation, then this could provide over 10,000 much needed affordable houses.
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2.52 Yes. The National Infrastructure Commission, the Cambridge and Peterborough Combined Authority and the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Enterprise Partnership acknowledge and support the economic growth potential of the Greater Cambridge area, and consider that there is a need to substantially increase housing delivery in order to support that economic growth and address the significant housing affordability issues that exist.
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Please see section 6.0 and 7.0 of the accompanying representations document. Forecasts suggest that long-term Greater Cambridge could see job growth of up to around 3,500 per year under a transformational job scenario, with associated housing need for around 2,200-2,300 homes per year across Greater Cambridge. There is good reason for Greater Cambridge to consider delivery in excess of its standard method figure (of c.1,800 homes per year). This would be consistent with the NIC’s findings that housebuilding across the CaMKOx arc would need to roughly double compared with recent delivery levels to meet needs in full, including those from land constrained markets. It would also assist the area in meeting more of its affordable housing needs and deal with some of the pressure from unmet housing needs in London leading to in commuters from the capital, often with greater purchasing power than local residents. The edge of the city is likely to need to be the focus for future employment growth. To achieve the most sustainable commuting patterns, housing similarly needs to be located on the edge of the city. We know that the most common method of transport for those living in the city and fringe who also work there is by cycling or walking. These high levels of sustainable travel can be maintained with the co-location of housing and employment at the site, and potentially the number using cars to travel locally could be reduced if accessibility around the local area is improved as a result of the development.
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While the Government’s National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) makes clear that the minimum number of homes a plan-making authority should plan for should be calculated using the Local Housing Need Standard Method (LHNSM), the presumption in favour of sustainable development and the tests of soundness still require an objective assessment of need (OAN) to determine if a higher number of homes should be targeted. This OAN for housing should be based on demographic need and housing market signals. However, in a rapidly growing economy, such as Greater Cambridge, it is impossible to ignore the demand for housing generated by the incoming workforce. The alternatives would be to either stymie that economic growth or accept increased inflow of commuters; neither of which are compatible with the presumption in favour of sustainable development, or the Government’s aspirations for the Cambridge – Oxford Arc. To support the Government’s objective of significantly boosting the supply of homes, a sufficient amount and variety of land needs to be identified to meeting housing needs within the Joint Local Plan area. The Cambridge and Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) (September 2018) suggests that higher housing target numbers are likely to be needed in Cambridgeshire if the potential for higher growth in employment is to be met. As is widely recognised, the economy of Cambridge is too important nationally for the Council to plan for the minimum number of homes required by the standard method. The increased demand for housing arising from the economic success of Cambridge also makes the area increasingly unaffordable. In addition to being a concern to residents, affordability will impact upon the businesses looking to locate in the area. There is a danger that if there is an insufficient supply of housing, the economic growth plans will not be realised. The role of housing in attracting and retaining skilled employees is widely recognised and should be adequately address in the Plan. There is a well-evidenced affordability problem in Greater Cambridge; a greater supply of homes will be part of the solution. “Too many of the people working in Cambridge have commutes that are difficult, long and growing: not out of choice, but necessity due to high housing costs.”3 The Cambridge and Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) (September 2018) suggests that higher housing target numbers are likely to be needed in Cambridgeshire if the potential for higher growth in employment is to be met. It identifies a need for at least 2,900 per annum within this Local Plan. As is widely recognised, the economy of Cambridge is too important nationally for the Council to plan for the minimum number of homes required by the standard method. The increased demand for housing arising from the economic success of Cambridge also makes the area increasingly unaffordable. In addition to be a concern to residents, affordability will impact upon the businesses looking to locate in the area. There is a danger that, if there is an insufficient supply of housing, the economic growth plans will not be realised. The role of housing in attracting and retaining skilled employees is widely recognised and should be adequately addressed in the Plan. If the economic growth of the area is to be facilitated through increased commuting from beyond the sub-region, then the goal of zero carbon and balancing health and wellbeing will not be achieved. A Housing Needs Report accompanies this representation that undertakes an objective review for what the future housing needs of Greater Cambridge are. It finds that there is an underlying and systemic affordability issue that is making it increasingly difficult for those on lower incomes to afford to live in the Greater Cambridge area. Alongside, the Cambridge economy has seen a prolonged and steady increase, which has attracted a larger workforce and increased the pressure on the housing market; availability and affordability. Alongside this trend is a clear political aspiration to see the Cambridge economy grow further; mostly clearly expressed by the Combined Authority that has a growth target as set out in its Devolution Deal of doubling GVA over 25 years. All of this clearly points to the need to plan for an amount of housing well above the minimum housing requirement indicated by the Standard Method.
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Local Housing Need figures are a minima and the intention should be to exceed the number of homes required by the Government both to provide flexibility and meet affordability challenges. In order to be robust and sound, the number of sites and dwellings to be allocated by the Plan should exceed the objectively assessed need to reflect the reality that some allocated sites will not come forward in the plan period or deliver the number of homes they are allocated for. Additionally, this is particularly the case when considering the aspirations for growth in jobs and economies across the district. Greater Cambridge’s current and future housing need is largely driven by the employment growth targeted as part of doubling the regional GVA by 2041. Research by Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Independent Economic Commission (CPIEC) clearly shows that the quantity of land/sites allocated for housing will need to be significantly more than that currently planned for in the Local Plans. Evidence on job density and economic activity shows there is little capacity among existing Greater Cambridge residents to expand the workforce and economic growth will need to rely on workers migrating or commuting into the area to avoid to not be limited. This places continuing pressure and demand on the housing market and to date, demand has vastly surpassed supply, creating a severe affordability issue. Therefore, the volume of house building needs to significantly increase across the district and exceed minimum requirements in order to prevent economic growth in Greater Cambridge stalling and housing unaffordability increasing. Allocating land for additional housing, above minimum targets, would also ensure there is sufficient flexibility within the Local Plan to respond to changing housing needs/trends over the Local Plan period.
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4.2 The current Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire Local Plans seek to provide a combined 33,500 dwellings to be built up to 2031. The area suffers a great disparity between housing provision and affordability. This is acknowledged within Figure 19 of the Issues and Options document itself and accompanying paragraph 4.6.3 confirms ‘Greater Cambridge is an expensive place to buy or rent a home. High prices are fuelled by high demand, which itself is fuelled by the strength of the local economy which attracts highly skilled workers’. The Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) Report confirms that growth in the employment sector has not been matched by proportionate house-buildings. The result has been large increases in house prices. 4.3 Greater Cambridge is located within the key economic corridors of the Oxford – Cambridge arc, the London – Stansted - Cambridge corridor and the Cambridge – Norwich tech corridor. The Oxford – Cambridge arc seeks to create a strategic vision corridor between the University cities. Its goal is to deliver 1 million dwellings in the arc by 2050, to be complemented by the infrastructure projects of the East-West Expressway and East-West Rail. At the eastern end of the arc, the driver is the City of Cambridge and its need for residential development to complement its skilled workforce. 4.4 The CPIER report provides a number of Key Recommendations to assist with growth in the area. Key Recommendation #5 of the CPIER Final Report September 2018 states: “There should be a review of housing requirements based on the potential for higher growth in employment than currently forecast by the EEFM. This review should take into account the continuing dialogue between ONS and the Centre for Business Research on employment numbers as well as the impact of the Cambridge-Milton Keynes-Oxford Arc. This should be used to set new targets which are likely to be higher than those already set – at the very least adding on accumulated backlog.” 4.5 A higher target of dwellings would assist in meeting the goals of the arc. A further positive resulting from increased housing numbers would be the subsequent proportion of affordable housing. At present, Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire District Council seek affordable housing provision of 40% for schemes over 15 dwellings. Should the Plan seek 66,700 dwellings rather than the 40,900 dwellings from the standard method calculation, then this could provide over 10,000 much needed affordable houses.
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6.3 To support the Government’s objective of significantly boosting the supply of homes, a sufficient amount and variety of land needs to be identified to meeting housing needs within the Joint Local Plan area. The Cambridge and Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) (September 2018) suggests that higher housing target numbers are likely to be needed in Cambridgeshire if the potential for higher growth in employment is to be met. 6.4 Housing requirements are minimums, not maximums to stay under at all costs. There is a wellevidenced affordability problem in Greater Cambridge; a greater supply of homes will be part of the solution. “Too many of the people working in Cambridge have commutes that are difficult, long and growing: not out of choice, but necessity due to high housing costs.”8
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33. Housing requirements are minimal and the intention should be to exceed the number of homes required by the Government. In order to be robust and sound, the number of sites and dwellings to be allocated by the Plan should exceed the objectively assessed need to reflect the reality that some allocated sites will not come forward in the plan period or deliver the number of homes they are allocated for. 34. Additionally, this is particularly the case when considering the aspirations for growth in jobs and economies across the district. Greater Cambridge’s current and future housing need is largely driven by the employment growth targeted as part of doubling the regional GVA by 2041. Research by Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Independent Economic Commission (CPIEC) clearly shows that the quantity of land/sites allocated for housing will need to be significantly more than that currently planned for in the Local Plans. 35. Evidence on job density and economic activity shows there is little capacity among existing Greater Cambridge residents to expand the workforce and economic growth will need to rely on workers migrating or commuting into the area to avoid limiting growth. This places continuing pressure and demand on the housing market and to date, demand has vastly surpassed supply, creating a severe affordability issue. Therefore, the volume of house building needs to significantly increase across the district and exceed minimum requirements in order to prevent economic growth in Greater Cambridge stalling and housing unaffordability increasing. 36. Allocating land for additional housing, above minimum targets, would also ensure there is sufficient flexibility within the Local Plan to respond to changing housing needs/trends over the Local Plan period.
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6.2.1 To support the Government’s objective of significantly boosting the supply of homes, a sufficient amount and variety of land needs to be identified to meeting housing needs within the Joint Local Plan area. The Cambridge and Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) (September 2018) suggests that higher housing target numbers are likely to be needed in Cambridgeshire if the potential for higher growth in employment is to be met. 6.2.2 Housing requirements are minimums, not maximums to stay under at all costs. There is a wellevidenced affordability problem in Greater Cambridge; a greater supply of homes will be part of the solution. “Too many of the people working in Cambridge have commutes that are difficult, long and growing: not out of choice, but necessity due to high housing costs.”3
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Yes. As set out in the response to Question 31, upward adjustments to the minimum figure derived from the standard method are required to take into account growth strategies, strategic infrastructure improvements and housing affordability in Greater Cambridgeshire. The National Infrastructure Commission, the Cambridge and Peterborough Combined Authority and the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Enterprise Partnership acknowledge and support the economic growth potential of the Greater Cambridge area, and consider that there is a need to substantially increase housing delivery in order to support that economic growth and address the significant housing affordability issues that exist.
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6.2 To support the Government’s objective of significantly boosting the supply of homes, a sufficient amount and variety of land needs to be identified to meeting housing needs within the Joint Local Plan area. The Cambridge and Peterborough Independent Economic Review (CPIER) (September 2018) suggests that higher housing target numbers are likely to be needed in Cambridgeshire if the potential for higher growth in employment is to be met. 6.3 Housing requirements are minimums, not maximums to stay under at all costs. There is a wellevidenced affordability problem in Greater Cambridge; a greater supply of homes will be part of the solution. “Too many of the people working in Cambridge have commutes that are difficult, long and growing: not out of choice, but necessity due to high housing costs.”5
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To deliver the transformational growth required, the two authorities should be planning for a much greater need than the minimum figure of 40,900 generated by the standard method. As correctly identified by the two authorities in the Issues and Options Consultation Document, the standard method makes no attempt to predict the impact of changing economic circumstances
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Altogether it has been estimated that more than 30,000 extra homes, above those already in the pipeline, could be built in the Greater Cambridge area by 2040. Grosvenor and USS support a plan for a higher number of homes to support the growing economy. However, it should be complimented with additional infrastructure and public services so that it does not compromise quality of life. Both Councils should carefully consider the priorities of their area to ensure local needs are being met. For example, a top priority for the South Cambridgeshire District Council is to reduce commuting travel and ensure the provision of homes specifically targets essential local workers. In addition, the demographic profile is also changing, with the proportion of those aged over 65 significantly increasing. Therefore, the Councils should promote a range of housing options across all tenures to accommodate for the growth of people and families. The CPIER makes it clear that the area can plan for significant employment and housing growth successfully but acknowledges that each area needs to carry out their own detailed modelling work which will form part of a concrete evidence base. This in turn helps to inform the strategic planning requirements of the area. Higher levels of housing, where delivered in the most sustainable locations, such as at Trumpington, will have positive impacts on social, environmental and economic factors
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