Appendix C: Evidence of Lead-In Times, Lapse Rates and Build Out Rates - Lead-in Times for sites of 10 dwellings or more (net)
Comment
Greater Cambridge Housing Trajectory and Five Year Housing Land Supply - Main Document
Representation ID: 168394
Received: 14/10/2019
Respondent: Cambourne Town Council
Concerned by the Councils' approach to developing lead-in times based on type of planning application rather than size of site. The report recognises that larger sites have longer lead-in times and yet it would appear that there is no recognition of this in the assumptions made. This approach is clearly at risk of challenge as it will underestimate the time it takes for delivery to start on larger sites.
Comment
Greater Cambridge Housing Trajectory and Five Year Housing Land Supply - Main Document
Representation ID: 168414
Received: 14/10/2019
Respondent: MacTaggart and Mickel
Agent: Rapleys LLP
In principle, the identification of assumptions is consistent with the PPG.
The following comments should be addressed in pursuit of a robust analysis. When selecting sites to be used to act as a barometer for delivery timescales, the Councils have elected to exclude a number of sites they consider to be 'abnormal'. Contrary to the Councils' assertion that these instances are 'abnormal', such occurrences affect many major sites and are not untypical. By choosing to exclude such circumstances, delivery is unduly positively skewed.
The assumptions made on lead-in times appear to relate to the interval between approval and a 'start on site' rather than to first housing completions. The commencement of construction will often involve a long lead in time and it is not unusual for 6-9 months between the start of development and the first houses being finished and released onto the market. Such factors must be accounted for when determining actual housing delivery.
Comment
Greater Cambridge Housing Trajectory and Five Year Housing Land Supply - Main Document
Representation ID: 168466
Received: 14/10/2019
Respondent: Pigeon Land Ltd
Agent: Savills
We are concerned that the proposed 'typical' lead-in times is not supported by the evidence contained in the document, and that projected lead-in times on strategic sites are not supported by the Council's own and others' evidence.
Five sites have been excluded. Removing such sites from the determination of 'typical' lead-in times skews the evidence. Logically sites that progressed from planning application to first construction or completion in an abnormally short period should likewise be excluded.
The reasons given for the exclusion of some sites are not considered to be 'abnormal' site specific factors that will not be encountered with future sites. There are sites included in the trajectory to which these 'abnormal' factors are applicable.
Comment
Greater Cambridge Housing Trajectory and Five Year Housing Land Supply - Main Document
Representation ID: 168468
Received: 14/10/2019
Respondent: Pigeon Land Ltd
Agent: Savills
For strategic sites, the evidence of lead-in times has not been used for the projected lead-in times on the largest new sites included in the housing trajectory.
The projected timescales are based on assumptions made by the Councils and applicants. With such assumptions, there is often an in-built sub-conscious optimism bias that leads to optimistic assumptions that are then not realised - in short, it ends up taking longer than anticipated.
The time taken from the submission of an application to the commencement of construction of the first dwelling cannot be the same as the time taken to the completion of that dwelling.
We are similarly concerned that the evidence used to arrive at some of the proposed typical lead-in times for non-strategic sites is somewhat limited.
Comment
Greater Cambridge Housing Trajectory and Five Year Housing Land Supply - Main Document
Representation ID: 168562
Received: 14/10/2019
Respondent: Bidwells
We have some concerns regarding lead-in times and how the evidence provided is applied. However, these do not affect the sites contested in this assessment and are therefore not considered further.
Comment
Greater Cambridge Housing Trajectory and Five Year Housing Land Supply - Main Document
Representation ID: 168571
Received: 14/10/2019
Respondent: Bloor Homes Eastern
Agent: Carter Jonas
Given that the Councils' spatial strategies are highly reliant on strategic sites, the lead in times for these sites have been considered further, particularly as it is well documented that such sites are slow to deliver housing. NLP study identifies that the average lead-in time for sites of 2000+ dwellings is just under 7 years from the submission of a planning application, and the lead in time is similar for schemes of 1500-1999 dwellings.
The information contained within the uploaded Housing Land Supply Assessment makes clear that the Councils', whether considered separately or jointly, are not able to demonstrate a five year housing land supply of deliverable sites in accordance with the requirements of the NPPF.
Comment
Greater Cambridge Housing Trajectory and Five Year Housing Land Supply - Main Document
Representation ID: 168572
Received: 14/10/2019
Respondent: Axis Land Partnerships
Agent: Carter Jonas
Given that the Councils' spatial strategies are highly reliant on strategic sites, the lead in times for these sites have been considered further, particularly as it is well documented that such sites are slow to deliver housing. NLP study identifies that the average lead-in time for sites of 2000+ dwellings is just under 7 years from the submission of a planning application, and the lead in time is similar for schemes of 1500-1999 dwellings.
The information contained within the uploaded Housing Land Supply Assessment makes clear that the Councils', whether considered separately or jointly, are not able to demonstrate a five year housing land supply of deliverable sites in accordance with the requirements of the NPPF.
Comment
Greater Cambridge Housing Trajectory and Five Year Housing Land Supply - Main Document
Representation ID: 168573
Received: 14/10/2019
Respondent: Laragh House Developments Limited
Agent: Carter Jonas
Given that the Councils' spatial strategies are highly reliant on strategic sites, the lead in times for these sites have been considered further, particularly as it is well documented that such sites are slow to deliver housing. NLP study identifies that the average lead-in time for sites of 2000+ dwellings is just under 7 years from the submission of a planning application, and the lead in time is similar for schemes of 1500-1999 dwellings.
The information contained within the uploaded Housing Land Supply Assessment makes clear that the Councils', whether considered separately or jointly, are not able to demonstrate a five year housing land supply of deliverable sites in accordance with the requirements of the NPPF.
Comment
Greater Cambridge Housing Trajectory and Five Year Housing Land Supply - Main Document
Representation ID: 168574
Received: 14/10/2019
Respondent: Endurance Estates
Agent: Carter Jonas
Given that the Councils' spatial strategies are highly reliant on strategic sites, the lead in times for these sites have been considered further, particularly as it is well documented that such sites are slow to deliver housing. NLP study identifies that the average lead-in time for sites of 2000+ dwellings is just under 7 years from the submission of a planning application, and the lead in time is similar for schemes of 1500-1999 dwellings.
The information contained within the uploaded Housing Land Supply Assessment makes clear that the Councils', whether considered separately or jointly, are not able to demonstrate a five year housing land supply of deliverable sites in accordance with the requirements of the NPPF.
Comment
Greater Cambridge Housing Trajectory and Five Year Housing Land Supply - Main Document
Representation ID: 168575
Received: 14/10/2019
Respondent: Bloomhall Ltd
Agent: Carter Jonas
Given that the Councils' spatial strategies are highly reliant on strategic sites, the lead in times for these sites have been considered further, particularly as it is well documented that such sites are slow to deliver housing. NLP study identifies that the average lead-in time for sites of 2000+ dwellings is just under 7 years from the submission of a planning application, and the lead in time is similar for schemes of 1500-1999 dwellings.
The information contained within the uploaded Housing Land Supply Assessment makes clear that the Councils', whether considered separately or jointly, are not able to demonstrate a five year housing land supply of deliverable sites in accordance with the requirements of the NPPF.