Greater Cambridge Housing Trajectory and Five Year Housing Land Supply - Main Document

Object

Representation ID: 168462

Received: 14/10/2019

Respondent: Pigeon Land Ltd

Agent: Savills

Land north east of Rampton Road, Cottenham

We consider there might very well not be sufficient clear evidence of deliverability for 154 dwellings within the five year supply.

Object

Representation ID: 168463

Received: 14/10/2019

Respondent: Pigeon Land Ltd

Agent: Savills

Land north of Worts Causeway

We consider there might very well not be sufficient clear evidence of deliverability for 140 dwellings within the five year supply.

Object

Representation ID: 168464

Received: 14/10/2019

Respondent: Pigeon Land Ltd

Agent: Savills

Land south of Worts' Causeway

We consider there might very well not be sufficient clear evidence of deliverability for 180 dwellings within the five year supply.

Object

Representation ID: 168465

Received: 14/10/2019

Respondent: Pigeon Land Ltd

Agent: Savills

We conclude that the 5YHLS is below the five-year requirement.

Collectively, the removal from the trajectory of the following ten sites would reduce the projected five year supply by over 500 dwellings:
* Police Station, Parkside, Cambridge - 50 dwellings
* Orchard Park, Parcel COM4 - 42 dwellings
* Land south of Babraham Road, Sawston - 25 dwellings
* Land south of 1b Over Road, Willingham - 26 dwellings
* South of Thompsons Meadow, Trap Road, Guilden Morden - 8 dwellings
* Rear of 79 High Street, Meldreth - 18 dwellings
* Land at Teversham Road, Fulbourn - 110 dwellings
* Land north east of Rampton Road, Cottenham - 154 dwellings
* Land north of Worts Causeway - 140 dwellings
* Land south of Worts' Causeway - 180 dwellings

The variance in lead-in times for the following strategic sites would reduce the projected five-year supply by over 850 dwellings:
* Cambridge East - land north of Cherry Hinton
* Waterbeach New Town
* Bourn Airfield New Village

The adoption of a peak annual delivery rate of c.70 dpa supported by the evidence in the document, on the Darwin Green (NIAB) site alone would reduce the projected five-year supply by over 150 dwellings.

Comment

Representation ID: 168466

Received: 14/10/2019

Respondent: Pigeon Land Ltd

Agent: Savills

We are concerned that the proposed 'typical' lead-in times is not supported by the evidence contained in the document, and that projected lead-in times on strategic sites are not supported by the Council's own and others' evidence.

Five sites have been excluded. Removing such sites from the determination of 'typical' lead-in times skews the evidence. Logically sites that progressed from planning application to first construction or completion in an abnormally short period should likewise be excluded.

The reasons given for the exclusion of some sites are not considered to be 'abnormal' site specific factors that will not be encountered with future sites. There are sites included in the trajectory to which these 'abnormal' factors are applicable.

Comment

Representation ID: 168468

Received: 14/10/2019

Respondent: Pigeon Land Ltd

Agent: Savills

For strategic sites, the evidence of lead-in times has not been used for the projected lead-in times on the largest new sites included in the housing trajectory.

The projected timescales are based on assumptions made by the Councils and applicants. With such assumptions, there is often an in-built sub-conscious optimism bias that leads to optimistic assumptions that are then not realised - in short, it ends up taking longer than anticipated.

The time taken from the submission of an application to the commencement of construction of the first dwelling cannot be the same as the time taken to the completion of that dwelling.

We are similarly concerned that the evidence used to arrive at some of the proposed typical lead-in times for non-strategic sites is somewhat limited.

Object

Representation ID: 168469

Received: 14/10/2019

Respondent: Pigeon Land Ltd

Agent: Savills

Cambridge East - North of Cherry Hinton

It would seem prudent to adopt a more cautious approach, which would have the following effect:
* Document: submitted March 2018 - projected first completions June 2022 (3.6 years)
* Revised: Submitted March 2018 - projected first completions June 2024 (5.6 years)

Object

Representation ID: 168470

Received: 14/10/2019

Respondent: Pigeon Land Ltd

Agent: Savills

Waterbeach New Town

It would seem prudent to adopt a more cautious approach, which would have the following effect:


U&C
* Document: Submitted February 2017 - projected first completions September 2020 (3.6 years)
* Revised: Submitted February 2017 - projected first completions September 2022 (5.6 years)

RLW
* Document: Submitted May 2018 - projected first completions June 2021 (3.1 years)
* Revised: Submitted May 2018 - projected first completions June 2023 (5.1 years)

Object

Representation ID: 168471

Received: 14/10/2019

Respondent: Pigeon Land Ltd

Agent: Savills

Bourn Airfield New Village

It would seem prudent to adopt a more cautious approach, which would have the following effect:
* Document: Submitted September 2018 - projected first completions March 2022 (3.5 years)
* Revised: Submitted September 2018 - projected first completions March 2024 (5.5 years)

Object

Representation ID: 168472

Received: 14/10/2019

Respondent: Pigeon Land Ltd

Agent: Savills

We are concerned that some of the build-out rates assumed in the document are neither realistic, nor underpinned by the Councils' own evidence.

For example, NIAB (Darwin Green): Darwin Green development is being constructed by a single developer. The usually applied rule-of-thumb is that a single developer operating from a single sales point might reasonably be expected to achieve approximately 50 market sales per year subject to a range of other factors, all of which will either increase or decrease sales rates. The peak build-out rate on this site is projected as being 120 dpa (Years 3 to 5) and there is no explanation as to how such a rate of delivery might be achieved. By way of comparison, the same developer at Trumpington Meadows achieved an average of 70 dpa and a peak of 93 dpa.

The adoption of a peak annual delivery rate of c. 70 dpa is supported by the evidence in the document.